Article - U.S. May Reduce Tariffs on Indian Exports - Nomura

Jai Siya Ram http://www.fxlive.in/ Key Forecast (Nomura) Current Status: The United States levied 50% tariffs on Indian exports—a combination of a 25% reciprocal tariff and an additional 25% penalty related to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The Financial Express Wikipedia Nomura's Prediction: The extra 25% penalty is expected to be lifted by November, reducing the overall rate to 25% going forward. This base tariff is projected to remain in effect through FY2026. The Financial Express Macroeconomic Impact: Despite this expected relief, Nomura has revised India’s GDP forecast down to 6.0% from 6.2%—citing weaker exports, rising unemployment, and decelerated private investments. The Financial Express Monetary Outlook: The firm anticipates two repo rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the Reserve Bank of India, possibly in October and December, potentially taking the rate down to 5% by year-end. Strategic Analysis Temporary Relief Insight: Removing the penalty tariff may restore some competitiveness to India’s exports, especially in textiles, jewelry, and other affected sectors. Lingering Pressure: A 25% base tariff remains significantly high compared to peers and will continue to strain trade performance and export-led industries. Policy Tailwinds: RBI easing could help buffer domestic shortfalls—especially in sectors impacted by tariff pressure. Regards FXLive Chandan Singh Rawat MCX Commodity + NSE Equity and Forex Market